Thanks for a great post! Sounds like a good company to own, in terms of quality and valuation. The difficulty is to determine if it's a rapidly dying, quickly or slowly declining or stagnant market. As a resident of Sweden, it's easy to think that cash is disappearing completely, but that's not the case globally.
As long as it is a stagnant or slowly declining market, it can (although it sounds contradictory) be a good thing, by reducing competition and also the ‘boredom factor’ making the company cheap. Loomis is a reasonably successful boring company, here in Sweden. It could be something to follow to monitor the sector (transport of physical money).
I own Karooooo myself, in transport/SaaS. It's a more expensive company, but in the opposite of a dying market, growing maybe 18-20% per year, but the company is in any case not hot or well known (which would have been a big risk). One thing I look at specifically in Canada/North America is if the fund company Mawer owns the stock. I don't think they own Namsys, but that's very much explained by the small size.
I will consider whether Namsys can be a good addition to the portfolio.
I thought it was interesting you used the coal and tobacco as example of industry with a fat tail. I believe coal has been able to maintain itself because energy is an ever expanding market and tobacco is obviously extremely addictive. I’m not sure paper money is standing on such a strong ground. For instance China has moved far with cashless.
Thanks for a great post! Sounds like a good company to own, in terms of quality and valuation. The difficulty is to determine if it's a rapidly dying, quickly or slowly declining or stagnant market. As a resident of Sweden, it's easy to think that cash is disappearing completely, but that's not the case globally.
As long as it is a stagnant or slowly declining market, it can (although it sounds contradictory) be a good thing, by reducing competition and also the ‘boredom factor’ making the company cheap. Loomis is a reasonably successful boring company, here in Sweden. It could be something to follow to monitor the sector (transport of physical money).
I own Karooooo myself, in transport/SaaS. It's a more expensive company, but in the opposite of a dying market, growing maybe 18-20% per year, but the company is in any case not hot or well known (which would have been a big risk). One thing I look at specifically in Canada/North America is if the fund company Mawer owns the stock. I don't think they own Namsys, but that's very much explained by the small size.
I will consider whether Namsys can be a good addition to the portfolio.
Best regards
Gustav (@aktieblogg on Twitter)
Thank you for the straight forward write up!
I thought it was interesting you used the coal and tobacco as example of industry with a fat tail. I believe coal has been able to maintain itself because energy is an ever expanding market and tobacco is obviously extremely addictive. I’m not sure paper money is standing on such a strong ground. For instance China has moved far with cashless.
Hope this was mildly interesting!
so a canadian nanocap where the CEO comps ~25% net income, and had serious competitors in every niche?
i love this substack, so hope you feel we deserve juicier!